Rates, Predictors, and Outcomes of Early and Late Recurrence After Stroke The North Dublin Population Stroke Study

Background and Purpose Few recent studies have investigated the rates and predictors of early and late stroke recurrence using prospective population-based methodology. We investigated recurrent stroke at 2 years in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study (NDPSS). Methods Patients were ascertained from December 2005 to 2006 from overlapping community and hospital sources using hot and cold pursuit. Stroke recurrence, survival, and functional outcome were ascertained at 72 hours, 7 days, 28 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years. Results Of 567 patients, cumulative 2-year stroke recurrence rate was 10.8% and case fatality was 38.6%. Recurrence subtype was associated with initial stroke subtype (P<0.001). On multivariable Cox regression, hyperlipidemia (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.32; P=0.005) and prior stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.92; P=0.01) were independent predictors of 2-year recurrence in 28-day survivors. Conclusions Despite rigorous ascertainment, recurrent stroke rates were lower in current study than in earlier studies. Our data suggest that large sample sizes may be needed for future secondary prevention trials in patients treated with modern preventive medications.