Journal
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Volume 30, Issue 8, Pages 2169-2178Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-015-1134-1
Keywords
Interval probability; Dual uncertainties; Random boundary interval; Two-stage stochastic programming; Water resources allocation
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51225904, 51190095, 51109077]
- 111 Project [B14008]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2014XS69]
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In this study, a stochastic programming with imprecise probabilities (SP-IP) model is proposed for planning water resources systems. The SP-IP model is capable of addressing multiple uncertainties in the forms of intervals with random boundaries and imprecise probability distributions. The stochastic optimization model can be transformed into a deterministic equivalence in a straightforward manner. A case study of regional water resources allocation is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. Results indicate that the total net benefits would be decreased with increased probabilities of occurrence, reflecting a potential trade-off between economic benefits and associated risks. The SP-IP model is also capable of providing a variety of decision alternatives under different scenarios of water policies, which is useful for water managers to formulate an appropriate water management policy in an uncertain environment.
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