Deep generative models of genetic variation capture the effects of mutations

The functions of proteins and RNAs are defined by the collective interactions of many residues, and yet most statistical models of biological sequences consider sites nearly independently. Recent approaches have demonstrated benefits of including interactions to capture pairwise covariation, but leave higher-order dependencies out of reach. Here we show how it is possible to capture higher-order, context-dependent constraints in biological sequences via latent variable models with nonlinear dependencies. We found that DeepSequence (https://github.com/debbiemarkslab/DeepSequence), a probabilistic model for sequence families, predicted the effects of mutations across a variety of deep mutational scanning experiments substantially better than existing methods based on the same evolutionary data. The model, learned in an unsupervised manner solely on the basis of sequence information, is grounded with biologically motivated priors, reveals the latent organization of sequence families, and can be used to explore new parts of sequence space.