Journal
NATURE
Volume 558, Issue 7710, Pages 396-+Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z
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Funding
- Leverhulme Trust International Research Network grant [F/00426/G]
- Royal Society - Newton Advanced Research Fellowship [NA-150360]
- National Coral Reef Monitoring Program through NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program
- National Coral Reef Monitoring Program through NOAA Ocean Acidification Program
- National Geographic Research Grant
- NERC-ESPA-DFiD: Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme Grant [NE/K01045X/1]
- NERC Grant [NE/K003143/1]
- Leverhulme Trust Research Fellowship [RF-2015-152]
- DEFRA Darwin Initiative grant [19-027]
- Australian Research Council grant [DE130101705]
- Royal Society grant [RS-UF140691]
- BHP-CSIRO Ningaloo Outlook Marine Research Partnership
- Australian Research Council and World Bank/GEF CCRES project
- NERC [NE/K010484/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.
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