Journal
NATURE
Volume 558, Issue 7709, Pages 233-241Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0173-4
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Funding
- Australian Government Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) programme through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC
- National Environmental Science Program
- Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
- Australian Antarctic Science Program
- Australian Research Council
- Institut Paul Emile Victor
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ASUMA project) [ANR-14-CE01-0001]
- New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute grant
- Royal Society of New Zealand James Cook Fellowship
- Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment
- UK Natural Environment Research Council
- British Council
- Foundation for Science and Technology Investigator programme [IF/00616/2013]
- MARE strategic programme [MARE-UID/MAR/04292/2013]
- NSF [ICER 1664013]
- NASA's Sea Level Rise Program
- NERC [bas010011] Funding Source: UKRI
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We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.
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