Journal
NATURE
Volume 512, Issue 7513, Pages 185-+Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/nature13402
Keywords
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Categories
Funding
- European Union [LSHM-CT- 2007-037286]
- FP7 projects IMAGEMEND [602450]
- MATRICS [603016]
- Innovative Medicine Initiative Project EU-AIMS [115300-2]
- Medical Research Council Programme Grant Developmental pathways into adolescent substance abuse [93558]
- Swedish funding agency FORMAS
- Medical Research Council
- Wellcome Trust (Behavioural and Clinical Neuroscience Institute, University of Cambridge)
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London
- Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust
- King's College London
- Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) [01GS08152, 01EV0711, eMED SysAlc 01ZX1311A]
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) [SP 383/5-1, SM 80/7-1, SFB 940/1, FOR 1617]
- French MILDT (Mission Interministerielle de Lutte contre la Drogue et la Toxicomanie)
- CENIR (Centre de NeuroImagerie de Recherche) within the ICM institute
- National Institute of Mental Health [MH082116]
- National Institutes of Health Center of Biomedical Research Excellence award from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences [P20GM103644]
- Tobacco Centers of Regulatory Science award [P50DA036114]
- NASA at University of Vermont [NNX 06AC88G]
- MRC [G0901858] Funding Source: UKRI
- Medical Research Council [G0901858, G0001354, G1000183B, G0001354B] Funding Source: researchfish
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A comprehensive account of the causes of alcohol misuse must accommodate individual differences in biology, psychology and environment, and must disentangle cause and effect. Animal models(1) can demonstrate the effects of neurotoxic substances; however, they provide limited insight into the psycho-social and higher cognitive factors involved in the initiation of substance use and progression to misuse. One can search for pre-existing risk factors by testing for endophenotypic biomarkers(2) in non-using relatives; however, these relatives may have personality or neural resilience factors that protect them from developing dependence(3). A longitudinal study has potential to identify predictors of adolescent substance misuse, particularly if it can incorporate a wide range of potential causal factors, both proximal and distal, and their influence on numerous social, psychological and biological mechanisms(4). Here we apply machine learning to a wide range of data from a large sample of adolescents (n = 692) to generate models of current and future adolescent alcohol misuse that incorporate brain structure and function, individual personality and cognitive differences, environmental factors (including gestational cigarette and alcohol exposure), life experiences, and candidate genes. These models were accurate and generalized to novel data, and point to life experiences, neurobiological differences and personality as important antecedents of binge drinking. By identifying the vulnerability factors underlying individual differences in alcohol misuse, these models shed light on the aetiology of alcohol misuse and suggest targets for prevention.
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