Journal
NATURE
Volume 486, Issue 7401, Pages 52-58Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/nature11018
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Funding
- University of California at Berkeley Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research under Berkeley Initiative for Global Change Biology
- Direct For Biological Sciences [0827460] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Div Of Biological Infrastructure [0956389, 0850373] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Emerging Frontiers [0827460] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.
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