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Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Journal

NATURE
Volume 461, Issue 7260, Pages 53-59

Publisher

NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/nature08227

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Funding

  1. US National Science Foundation
  2. European Heads of Research Councils
  3. European Science Foundation and the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme through a European Young Investigator Award
  4. Deutsche Bank Jameson Complexity Studies Fund
  5. NSF/NOAA CAMEO [NA08OAR4320894]
  6. Direct For Biological Sciences
  7. Division Of Environmental Biology [822700] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

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