4.6 Article

Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu's flash floods, July 11-14, 2012

Journal

NATURAL HAZARDS
Volume 73, Issue 3, Pages 1255-1267

Publisher

SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1134-3

Keywords

Kyushu flash floods; Synoptic climatology; Atmospheric anomalous; Reanalysis data

Funding

  1. Kyoto University
  2. Japan Society for the Promotion of Science [P12055]
  3. JSPS KAKENHI [24.02055]
  4. Chinese Academy of Sciences
  5. China Scholarship Council (CSC)
  6. Austrian Science Fund (FWF) [P12055] Funding Source: Austrian Science Fund (FWF)
  7. Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [12F02055] Funding Source: KAKEN

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During July 11-14, 2012, deadly floods and landslides triggered by a series of unprecedented heavy rains hit Kyushu, Japan, causing at least 32 deaths and around 400,000 evacuations. We focus on synoptic anomalies identified after inspecting rainfall patterns and documenting the conditions associated with this tragic event using data combined from the Global Rainfall Map in Near Real Time data, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset, and the global forecast system. Rainfall maps indicated that there were many heavy rains in Kyushu in these days and this disaster was associated with the pattern of forecasts and standardized anomalies. A weather trough with positive height anomalies appeared, the center of which moved to the north of Japan over this period, which might cause wind anomalies and whereby lots of water vapor were transported to Kyushu area with up to 90 m s(-1), and high values of precipitable water formed with up to 60 mm. These results suggest that a larger-scale pattern is conducive for heavy rainfall and the anomalies put the pattern in context as to the potential for an extreme rainfall event, which can provide insights and methods for predicting extreme events' or something similar.

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