Journal
NATURAL HAZARDS
Volume 66, Issue 2, Pages 873-886Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0530-9
Keywords
Land subsidence; Scenario analysis; Economic losses; Tianjin Binhai New Area
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [40973078, 41101352]
- National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (973 Program) [2010CB434806]
- Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University of Ministry of Education of China (NCET Program) [NCET-10-0954]
- Tianjin Municipal Natural Science Foundation [11JCZDJC24500, 10SYSYJC27400]
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Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area.
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