Journal
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
Volume 142, Issue 1, Pages 386-400Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00231.1
Keywords
Variational analysis; Climate prediction; Data assimilation; Model initialization
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Funding
- Japan Society for Promotion of Science [KAKENHI] [11024975]
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan [10101028]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [23740361] Funding Source: KAKEN
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Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) on a seasonal-to-interdecadal time scale under the existence of unstable modes can be viewed as an optimization problem of synchronized, coupled chaotic systems. The problem is tackled by adjusting initial conditions to bring all stable modes closer to observations and by using a continuous guide to direct unstable modes toward a reference time series. This interpretation provides a consistent and effective procedure for solving problems of long-term state estimation. By applying this approach to an ocean general circulation model with a parameterized vertical diffusion procedure, it is demonstrated that tangent linear and adjoint models in this framework should have no unstable modes and hence be suitable for tracking persistent signals. This methodology is widely applicable to extend the assimilation period in 4D-Var.
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