Galaxy gas fractions at high redshift: the tension between observations and cosmological simulations

CO measurements of z similar to 14 galaxies have found that their baryonic gas fractions are significantly higher than those for galaxies at z = 0, with values ranging from 20 to 80 per cent. Here, we suggest that the gas fractions inferred from observations of star-forming galaxies at high-z are overestimated, owing to the adoption of locally calibrated COH2 conversion factors (aCO). Evidence from both observations and numerical models suggests that aCO varies smoothly with the physical properties of galaxies, and that aCO can be parametrized simply as a function of both gas-phase metallicity and observed CO surface brightness. When applying this functional form, we find fgas similar to 1040 per cent in galaxies with M* = 10101012??M?. Moreover, the scatter in the observed fgasM* relation is lowered by a factor of 2. The lower inferred gas fractions arise physically because the interstellar media of high-z galaxies have higher velocity dispersions and gas temperatures than their local counterparts, which results in an aCO that is lower than the z = 0 value for both quiescent discs and starbursts. We further compare these gas fractions to those predicted by cosmological galaxy formation models. We show that while the canonically inferred gas fractions from observations are a factor of 23 larger at a given stellar mass than predicted by models, our rederived aCO values for z = 14 galaxies result in revised gas fractions that agree significantly better with the simulations.