Most massive haloes with Gumbel statistics

We present an analytical calculation of the extreme value statistics for dark matter haloes - i.e., the probability distribution of the most massive halo within some region of the universe of specified shape and size. Our calculation makes use of the counts-in-cells formalism for the correlation functions, and the halo bias derived from the Sheth-Tormen mass function. We demonstrate the power of the method on spherical regions, comparing the results to measurements in a large cosmological dark matter simulation and achieving good agreement. Particularly good fits are obtained for the most likely value of the maximum mass and for the high-mass tail of the distribution, relevant in constraining cosmologies by observations of most massive clusters.