Journal
MOLECULAR BREEDING
Volume 34, Issue 4, Pages 1843-1852Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11032-014-0143-y
Keywords
Genomic selection; Triticum aestivum L.; Ridge regression; Bayesian LASSO; Random Forest regression; Plant breeding
Categories
Funding
- FSOV (Funds de Soutien a l'Obtention Vegetale) [FSOV2008A]
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Five genomic prediction models were applied to three wheat agronomic traits-grain yield, heading date and grain test weight-in three breeding populations, each comprising about 350 doubled haploid or recombinant inbred lines evaluated in three locations during a 3-year period. The prediction accuracy, measured as the correlation between genomic estimated breeding value and observed trait, was in the range of previously published values for yield (r = 0.2-0.5), a trait with relatively low heritability. Accuracies for heading date and test weight, with relatively high heritabilities, were about 0.70. There was no improvement of prediction accuracy when two or three breeding populations were merged into one for a larger training set (e.g., for yield r ranged between 0.11 and 0.40 in the respective populations and between 0.18 and 0.35 in the merged populations). Cross-population prediction, when one population was used as the training population set and another population was used as the validation set, resulted in no prediction accuracy. This lack of cross-population prediction accuracy cannot be explained by a lower level of relatedness between populations, as measured by a shared SNP similarity, since it was only slightly lower between than within populations. Simulation studies confirm that cross-prediction accuracy decreases as the proportion of shared QTLs decreases, which can be expected from a higher level of QTL x environment interactions.
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