Journal
MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
Volume 31, Issue 2, Pages 258-271Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/molbev/mst203
Keywords
phylodynamics; coalescent; demographic inference; infectious diseases
Funding
- US National Science Foundation
- National Science Foundation [NSF-EF-08-27416]
- Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Centre
- James S. McDonnell Foundation
- Direct For Biological Sciences
- Division Of Environmental Biology [0827416] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches-often referred to as phylodynamic methods-have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.
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