Prediction of PM10 concentration on the basis of high resolution weather forecasting

The anthropogenic impact on PM10 air pollutions is less than previously presumed by scientists. This can be derived from the prevention activities against PM10 concentration undertaken in accordance with the European clean air acts which have mostly proved ineffective. The reason may be a lack of understanding about the fundamental role of meteorology in the frame of the PM10 distribution, accumulation, deposition and generation processes. Particulates that we measure today have both anthropogenic and natural sources. Comparing long term measurements of PM10 to NOx concentration the basic influence of the most important meteorological factors was detected. Based on these results, a highly reliable PM10 prediction model has been developed. The model uses detailed data from a local weather forecast, PM10 Measurements recorded in the past and the differentiations between working days, Saturdays and Sundays. The paper shows that only a few simple meteorological parameters are necessary to approximate the complex atmospheric processes, which are closely related to particulate concentrations, in an adequate way. By means of the PM10 prediction, the effectiveness of air quality control measures can be studied in advance for some days considering the specific local meteorological conditions. Therefore, this PM10 forecast model has been approved as a well suitable application for local authorities.