Test of the Classic Model for Predicting Endurance Running Performance

MCLAUGHLIN, J. E., E. T. HOWLEY, D. R. BASSETT JR., D. L. THOMPSON, and E. C. FITZHUGH. Test of the Classic Model for Predicting Endurance Running Performance. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 42, No. 5, pp. 991-997, 2010. Purpose: To compare the classic physiological variables linked to endurance performance ((V)over dotO(2max), %(V)over dotO(2max) at lactate threshold (LT), and running economy (RE)) with peak treadmill velocity (PTV) as predictors of performance in a 16-km time trial. Methods: Seventeen healthy, well-trained distance runners (10 males and 7 females) underwent laboratory testing to determine maximal oxygen uptake ((V)over dotO(2max)), RE, percentage of maximal oxygen uptake at the LT (%(V)over dotO(2max) at LT), running velocity at LT, and PTV. Velocity at (V)over dotO(2max) (v(V)over dotO(2max)) was calculated from RE and (V)over dotO(2max). Three stepwise regression models were used to determine the best predictors (classic vs treadmill performance protocols) for the 16-km running time trial. Results: Simple Pearson correlations of the variables with 16-km performance showed v(V)over dotO(2max) to have the highest correlation (r = -0.972) and %(V)over dotO(2max) at the LT the lowest (r = 0.136). The correlation coefficients for LT, (V)over dotO(2max), and PTV were very similar in magnitude (r = -0.903 to r = -0.892). When (V)over dotO(2max), %(V)over dotO(2max) at LT, RE, and PTV were entered into SPSS stepwise analysis, (V)over dotO(2max) explained 81.3% of the total variance, and RE accounted for an additional 10.7%. v(V)over dotO(2max) was shown to be the best predictor of the 16-km performance, accounting for 94.4% of the total variance. The measured velocity at (V)over dotO(2max) (PTV) was highly correlated with the estimated velocity at v(V)over dotO(2max) (r = 0.8867). Conclusions: Among well-trained subjects heterogeneous in (V)over dotO(2max) and running performance, v(V)over dotO(2max) is the best predictor of running performance because it integrates both maximal aerobic power and the economy of running. The PTV is linked to the same physiological variables that determine v(V)over dotO(2max).