A Mathematical Model for Forecasting the Dam-Break Flood Routing Process of a Landslide Dam

Once a landslide dam bursts, its reservoir discharges quickly in a flood which will cause catastrophic damage to life and property downstream. For a specific landslide dam, the peak flow rate and the evolution of downstream flood are influenced by the shape and size of the dike breach when dam-break occurs. According to the general nature of landslide dams and field observations of dike-breach development patterns, a dike-breach propagation mode has been determined. By combining an improved empirical equation with knowledge of the dike-breach propagation mode, a mathematical model for forecasting dam-break flood routing has been developed and is presented here. Sensitivity analysis was then carried out based on the computed results for peak flow rate and the flood evolution curve under different parameters. The computed results showed that the width coefficient and the depth coefficient had similar effects on the dam-break flood but that the impact of the depth coefficient was more significant than that of the width coefficient. Finally, the proposed model was used to calculate the flood evolution for the Tangjiashan landslide dam. The computed results showed that the error between the simulated result and the measured data was less than 5%.