Journal
MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES
Volume 37, Issue 15, Pages 2218-2226Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/mma.2968
Keywords
epidemic models; fractional order model; influenza A(H1N1); Grunwald-Letnikov method
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Funding
- CDCHTA-ULA [I-1289-11-05-A]
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In this paper, we propose a nonlinear fractional order model in order to explain and understand the outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1). In the fractional model, the next state depends not only upon its current state but also upon all of its historical states. Thus, the fractional model is more general than the classical epidemic models. In order to deal with the fractional derivatives of the model, we rely on the Caputo operator and on the Grunwald-Letnikov method to numerically approximate the fractional derivatives. We conclude that the nonlinear fractional order epidemic model is well suited to provide numerical results that agree very well with real data of influenza A(H1N1) at the level population. In addition, the proposed model can provide useful information for the understanding, prediction, and control of the transmission of different epidemics worldwide. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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