Journal
MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES
Volume 36, Issue 2, Pages 234-248Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/mma.2599
Keywords
stability theory; general biology and biomathematics; mathematical model; HIV; heterosexual transmission
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Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [11171268]
- National Mega-Project of Science Research [2012ZX10001-001]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [GK 08143042]
- International Development Research Center, Ottawa, Canada [104519-010]
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HIV transmission by sexual activities exhibits a substantial increase and has become a primary transmission mode in China recently. A mathematical model is formulated so as to identify the key processes and parameters that could explain the quick increase in the proportion of heterosexual transmission and further to assist in suggesting control measures urgently. On the basis of surveillance data on a number of people living with HIV/AIDS in Jiangsu province, we parameterize the model and estimate the reproduction number by using the least squares method. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be R0?=?3.52 for the therapy scenario of heterosexual transmission. The model predicts that the epidemic will peak in 2020. New infections are sensitive to the transmission coefficient, dependent on condom use rate, and the risky activities during the early period, whereas are sensitive to the recruitment rate in the late period of the transmission respectively. Antiviral therapy can either increase or decrease the new infections depending on both the extended life span of treated individuals and the infectiousness of the treated individuals. Hence, effective control measures during different transmission periods can be suggested, and antiretroviral therapy is a contentious issue for disease control. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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