Journal
LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
Volume 24, Issue 9, Pages 1167-1181Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10980-009-9355-7
Keywords
Land use; Land cover; Europe; Land abandonment; Land marginalization; Succession; Model
Funding
- Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality
- European Commission
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Land use change is the result of interactions between processes operating at different scales. Simulation models at regional to global scales are often incapable of including locally determined processes of land use change. This paper introduces a modeling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in land area with locally determined conversion processes. The model is illustrated with an application for European land use. Interactions between changing demands for agricultural land and vegetation processes leading to the re-growth of (semi-) natural vegetation on abandoned farmland are explicitly addressed. Succession of natural vegetation is simulated based on the spatial variation in biophysical and management related conditions, while the dynamics of the agricultural area are determined by a global multi-sector model. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of European land use and landscapes. The model approach is similarly suitable for other regions and processes where large scale processes interact with local dynamics.
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