Predicting land cover changes and their impact on the sediment influx in the Lake Balaton catchment

The land cover pattern in the Lake Balaton catchment (Hungary) has been changing since decollectivization in the 1990s. These land cover changes significantly impact the landscape connectivity, controlling the influx of sediments into the lake. A comparison of high resolution land cover maps from 1981, 2000 and 2005 showed a significant extensification of the agriculture with land cover conversions from arable land and vineyards to grassland and forest. For each land unit transition probabilities were assessed using logistic regression techniques to evaluate to which extent land cover changes are controlled by physical or socio-economic parameters. A stochastic land cover allocation algorithm was applied to generate future land cover patterns. The landscape connectivity for each of the simulated land cover patterns was assessed by means of a distributed routing algorithm. The simulations suggest that further land abandonment in the upslope parts of the catchment will cause a non-linear reduction of average soil erosion rates. The changes, however, have a relatively low impact on the sediment volume entering the lake because of the land unit's poor connectivity with permanent river channels. The major contributors to the lakes sediment load are the vineyards near the lakeshore. They are likely to be maintained because of their touristic value. A significant reduction of the total sediment input in the lake can be expected only if soil conservation measures in the vineyards near the shorelines are undertaken.