A cellular automata model of land cover change to integrate urban growth with open space conservation

The preservation of riparian zones and other environmentally sensitive areas has long been recognized as one of the most cost-effective methods of managing stormwater and providing a broad range of ecosystem services. In this research, a cellular automata (CA)-Markov chain model of land cover change was developed to integrate protection of environmentally sensitive areas into urban growth projections at a regional scale. The baseline scenario is a continuation of the current trends and involves only limited constraints on development. The green infrastructure (Gl) conservation scenario incorporates an open space conservation network based on the functional boundaries of environmentally sensitive areas. It includes variable buffer widths for impaired streams (as identified on the USEPA 303d list for stream impairment). 100-year floodplain, wetlands, urban open space and steep slopes. Comparative analysis of each scenario with landscape metrics indicated that under the Gl conservation scenario, the number of urban patches decreased while the extent of interspersion of urban land with green infrastructure patches increased leading to improved connectivity among open space features. The analysis provides a quantitative illustration of how our process contributes towards achieving urban planning objectives while incorporating green infrastructure. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.