Journal
LANCET
Volume 373, Issue 9680, Pages 2027-2033Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60568-7
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Funding
- Czech Ministry of Eduction [MSM 0021620814]
- Finnish National Institute for Health and Welfare
- German Paediatric Surveillance Unit, Dusseldorf University and DPV Science Initiative, Ulm University
- Hungarian Childhood Diabetes Epidemiology Group
- Northern Ireland Childhood Diabetes Group, Bart's-Oxford study group
- Yorkshire Paediatric Diabetes Specialist Interest Group
- Health Quality Information Partnership, Department of Health, England
- Swedish Research Council [07531]
- European Community [MR4*/029/UK, BMH1-CT92-0043, BMH4-CT96-0577, IC20-CT96-0070]
- Diabetes UK
- ESRC [ES/G007438/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Economic and Social Research Council [ES/G007438/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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Background The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe. Methods 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989-2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and used in conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Findings Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0.6% to 9.3%. The overall annual increase was 3.9% (95% Cl 3.6-4.2), and the increases in the age groups 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years were 5.4% (4.8-6.1), 4.3% (3.8-4.8), and 2.9% (2.5-3.3), respectively. The number of new cases in Europe in 2005 is estimated as 15000, divided between the 0-4 year, 5-9 year, and 10-14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24400, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020. Interpretation If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these children's needs should be made available.
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