Quantitative estimation of carbon removal effects due to wood utilization up to 2050 in Japan: effects from carbon storage and substitution of fossil fuels by harvested wood products

Carbon absorbed by forests remains stored in the timber used for wood products, and a change in wood product stock can be evaluated as substantial removal/emission of atmospheric carbon. Since the carbon storage effect due to harvested wood products (HWP) might be taken into account in the future framework of carbon mitigation, it is crucial to estimate the carbon flow and stock concerning HWP for the next commitment period. In the present study, we developed a model for estimating the flow and stock of wood products in Japan's building, furniture, and paper sectors. The HWP carbon storage effect and substitution effect (carbon reduction by substituting fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials with HWP) up to 2050 were quantitatively estimated by lifetime analysis. Our model simulation revealed that (i) the carbon stock change in Japan due to HWP would be evaluated as a large emission if the atmospheric-flow approach is adopted, (ii) carbon removal would not significantly increase if the ratio of newly constructed wooden buildings/furniture remains stable, and (iii) the carbon storage effect together with the substitution effect would have a significant impact on climate change mitigation if the ratio of newly constructed wooden buildings/furniture is gradually improved to 70% by 2050.