Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 112, Issue 50, Pages 15343-15347Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1516179112
Keywords
reproducibility; replications; prediction markets
Categories
Funding
- Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation [P2012-0002:1, P2013-0156:1, P2015-0001:1]
- Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation [Wallenberg Academy Fellows Grant]
- Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences [NHS 14-1719:1]
- National Science Foundation [CCF-0953516]
- Division of Computing and Communication Foundations
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr [0953516] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a statistically significant finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.
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