Journal
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
Volume 256, Issue 3, Pages 473-478Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.005
Keywords
Behavior; Hopf bifurcations; Force of infection; SIR models
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It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of the available information on the present and the past disease prevalence. We show that social behavior change alone may trigger sustained oscillations. This indicates that human behavior might be a critical explaining factor of oscillations in time-series of endemic diseases. Finally, we briefly show how the inclusion of seasonal variations in contacts may imply chaos. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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