Journal
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
Volume 177, Issue 1, Pages 209-236Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12011
Keywords
Drug-related deaths; Injecting drug users; Log-linear models; Model averaging; Population size; Prior information
Funding
- Medical Research Council [MC_U_A030_0007/01]
- Medical Research Council Addiction Research Cluster, 'Nationally integrated quantitative understanding of addiction harm'
- MRC [MC_U105260794, G1000021] Funding Source: UKRI
- Medical Research Council [MC_U105260794, G1000021] Funding Source: researchfish
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Injecting drug users (IDUs) have a direct social and economic effect yet can typically be regarded as a hidden population within a community. We estimate the size of the IDU population across the nine different Government Office regions of England in 2005-2006 by using capture-recapture methods with age (ranging from 15 to 64 years) and gender as covariate information. We consider a Bayesian model averaging approach using log-linear models, where we can include explicit prior information within the analysis in relation to the total IDU population (elicited from the number of drug-related deaths and injectors' drug-related death rates). Estimation at the regional level allows for regional heterogeneity with these regional estimates aggregated to obtain a posterior mean estimate for the number of England's IDUs of 195840 with 95% credible interval (181700, 210480). There is significant variation in the estimated regional prevalence of current IDUs per million of population aged 15-64 years, and in injecting drug-related death rates across the gender x age cross-classifications. The propensity of an IDU to be seen by at least one source also exhibits strong regional variability with London having the lowest propensity of being observed (posterior mean probability 0.21) and the South West the highest propensity (posterior mean 0.46).
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