Journal
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
Volume 10, Issue 81, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0921
Keywords
infectious disease dynamics; vector-borne disease; epidemiology; dengue; West Nile; filariasis
Categories
Funding
- Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics programme of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH)
- US Center for Disease Control and Prevention [5 U01 EH000418]
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
- National Science Foundation [0801544]
- Environment Program at the University of Florida
- NIH [R01 AI069387-01A1, R01-AI091980, R01-AI069341, R01-GM08322]
- Foundation for the NIH through the Grand Challenges in Global Health Initiative of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [49446, 1032350, OPP52250]
- Wellcome Trust [095066]
- Wellcome Trust, UK
- Innovative Vector Control Consortium
- Bloomberg Family Foundation
- NIH/NIAID [U19AI089674]
- MRC [MR/K00669X/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Medical Research Council [MR/K00669X/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
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