Journal
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
Volume 9, Issue 75, Pages 2708-2717Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0138
Keywords
Aedes albopictus; vector-borne diseases; climate change; regional climate modelling; Europe
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Funding
- EU [GOCE-CT-2003 505539]
- ERA-NET ENV-HEALTH project 'Risk assessment of the impact of climate change on human health and well-being' (NERC PROJECT) [NE/G002827/1]
- DH/HPA
- NERC [NE/G002827/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/G002827/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960-1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion.
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