Journal
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
Volume 9, Issue 67, Pages 376-388Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0304
Keywords
susceptible-infected-recovered-like models; hydrological transport; gravity models; multi-layer networks; long-distance dispersal
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Funding
- ERC [RINEC 22761]
- SNF [200021_124930/1]
- Italian Ministry of Research [II04CE49G8]
- James S. McDonnell Foundation [220020138]
- Politecnico di Milano
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We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000-2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.
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