The costs and benefits of bowel cancer service developments using discrete event simulation

Colorectal cancer includes cancerous growths in the colon, rectum and appendix and affects around 30 000 people in England each year. Maximizing health benefits for patients with colorectal cancer requires consideration of costs and outcomes across the whole service. In an era of scarce healthcare resources, there is a need to consider not only whether technologies and services may be considered clinically effective, but also whether they are cost-effective, that is, whether they represent value for money for the health service. Through the development of a whole disease model, it is possible to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of options for service development consistently within a common framework. Discrete event simulation has been used to model the complete colorectal cancer patient pathway from patient presentation through to referral and diagnosis, treatment, follow-up, potential recurrence, treatment of metastases and end-of-life care. This simulation model has been used to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of different options for change across the entire colorectal cancer pathway. This paper provides an empirical demonstration of the potential application of modelling entire disease areas to inform clinical policy and resource allocation decision-making. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2009) 60, 1305-1314. doi:10.1057/jors.2008.109 Published online 22 October 2008