The Nonlinear Relationship Between Gait Speed and Falls: The Maintenance of Balance, Independent Living, Intellect, and Zest in the Elderly of Boston Study

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relationship between gait speed and falls risk. DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis of the association between gait speed and subsequent falls and analysis of gait speed decline as a predictor of future falls. SETTING: Population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Seven hundred sixty-three community-dwelling older adults underwent baseline assessments and were followed for falls; 600 completed an 18-month follow-up assessment to determine change in gait speed and were followed for subsequent falls. MEASUREMENTS: Gait speed was measured during a 4-m walk, falls data were collected from monthly post-card calendars, and covariates were collected from in-home and clinic visits. RESULTS: There was a U-shaped relationship between gait speed and falls, with participants with faster (>= 1.3 m/s, incident rate ratio (IRR) = 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.48-3.04) and slower (<0.6 m/s, IRR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.06-2.42) gait speeds at higher risk than those with normal gait speeds (1.0-<1.3 m/s). In adjusted analyses, slower gait speeds were associated with greater risk of indoor falls (<0.6 m/s, IRR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.33-3.55; 0.6-<1.0 m/s, IRR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.08-1.94), and faster gait speed was associated with greater risk of outdoor falls (IRR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.40-3.16). A gait speed decline of more than 0.15 m/s per year predicted greater risk of all falls (IRR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.15-3.01). CONCLUSION: There is a nonlinear relationship between gait speed and falls, with a greater risk of outdoor falls in fast walkers and a greater risk of indoor falls in slow walkers. J Am Geriatr Soc 59:1069-1073, 2011.