How useful are clinical, biochemical, and cross-sectional imaging features in predicting potentially malignant or malignant cystic lesions of the pancreas? Results from a single institution experience with 220 surgically treated patients

BACKGROUND: This study aims to determine the use of preoperative clinical, biochemical, and cross-sectional imaging features for predicting malignancy in cystic lesions of the pancreas (CLP). STUDY DESIGN: Two hundred twenty patients who underwent operations for CLP or suspected CLP were reviewed. Patients were divided into two groups, patients undergoing operations for pseudocysts and patients undergoing operations for suspected cystic neoplasms. The predictive effect of various preoperative factors on the malignant potential of CLP was evaluated. RESULTS: Forty-four patients with a preoperative diagnosis of pseudocysts underwent operations for complications of pseudocyst. Forty-two were confirmed pathologically to have pseudocysts, but two were found, unexpectedly, to harbor malignant lesions. One hundred scventy-six patients underwent operations for suspected pancreatic cystic neoplasms. There were 70 benign, 51 potentially malignant, and 55 malignant CLP. On multivariate analysis, three factors, ie, elevated serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) or carbohydrate antigen 19-9; cyst size > 3 cm; and presence of one or more of three morphologic features, such as solid component; peripheral calcification; and main duct dilation on cross-sectional imaging were independent predictors of malignancy. Presence of two or three of these factors had a positive predictive value of 88% in predicting a premalignant or malignant CLP. CONCLUSIONS: Most pancreatic pseudocysts can be accurately diagnosed preoperatively. In patients with suspected pancreatic cystic neoplasms, elevated serum CEA or carbohydrate antigen 19-9, cyst size > 3 cm, and presence of suspicious morphologic features on imaging are predictors of potentially malignant or malignant CLP. Patients with a high likelihood of a potentially malignant or malignant lesion based on these three factors should undergo operation without additional investigations.