Journal
JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT
Volume -, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/2009/01/P01005
Keywords
fluctuations (theory); stochastic processes (theory); population dynamics (theory)
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We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible-infected susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed.
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