Perspective: New Product Failure Rates: Influence of Argumentum ad Populum and Self-Interest

A persistent myth in product innovation and management is that the failure rate of new products is 80% or higher. How does this false idea continue to displace the conclusions of empirical studies since 1977 that the new product failure rate is 40% or less? We examine the influence of a fallacy that encourages people's unthinking acceptance of ideas on new product failure rates and whose appeal rests primarily on an emotional, rather than a reasoned, argument. Self-interest also plays a major role in keeping this myth alive.