Journal
JOURNAL OF PROCESS CONTROL
Volume 20, Issue 2, Pages 95-107Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jprocont.2009.09.008
Keywords
Diabetes; Blood glucose modeling; Wiener modeling; Block-oriented modeling; Nonlinear regression; Predictive modeling
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The goal of this work is to present a causation modeling methodology with the ability to accurately infer blood glucose levels using a large set of highly correlated noninvasive input variables over an extended period of time. These models can provide insight to improve glucose monitoring, and glucose regulation through advanced model-based control technologies. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated using real data from a type 2 diabetic (T2D) subject collected under free-living conditions over a period of 25 consecutive days. The model was identified and tested using eleven variables that included three food variables as well as several activity and stress variables. The model was trained using 20 days of data and validated using 5 days of data. This gave a fitted correlation coefficient of 0.70 and an average absolute error (AAE) (i.e., the average of the absolute values for the measured glucose concentration minus modeled glucose concentration) of 13.3 mg/dL for the validation data. This AAE result was significantly better than the Subject's personal glucose meter AAE of 15.3 mg/dL for replicated measurements. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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