Pediatric surgery workforce: population and economic issues

Background: Whether a shortage of pediatric surgeons exists in the United States, such as those observed in the total physician and general surgical workforces, is ail important issue that will affect decisions regarding training, credentialing, and reimbursement. Our goal was to update information regarding the demand and supply of pediatric surgeons. Methods: Online American Pediatric Surgical Association (APSA) membership directory gave numbers of pediatric surgeons and their residence by metropolitan statistical areas (MSA), defined by the US census. Population and economic data were obtained from appropriate US government agencies. Results: There were 835 APSA members and 375 MSA. Eliminated were 86 MSA (with 12 APSA members) with incomplete data, 14 MSA (0 members) with populations less than 100,000, and 25 members with listed locations outside ail MSA. The remaining 798 members and 275 MSA comprised the study. The number of APSA members in an MSA correlated closely with MSA population (R-2 = 0.836) and 2006 births (R-2 = 0.767). Metropolitan statistical areas without an APSA member had a smaller population and birth rate than those with one or more members (P = .0001). An MSA with 1 APSA member had a higher population (P = .0003) and births per APSA member ratios (P = .0014) than MSA with 2 and 3 or more members. The presence of a medical school or a pediatric training program had no effect oil Population or births-to-APSA member ratios. There was no correlation between numbers of APSA members and state GDP or state GDP per capita. We used a low, medium, and high threshold to predict the need for pediatric surgeons based upon population per APSA member +/- 1 SD (272,466 163,386) to predict a need of 82 to 1344 pediatric surgeons, an increase in the APSA membership by 10% to 168%. Conclusion: Based oil population estimates and APSA membership, a Current shortage of pediatric surgeons exists. Measures should be taken to address this workforce issue. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.