Habitat suitability index of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) from July to September in the East China Sea

The habitat quality of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea has been a subject of concern in the last 10 years due to large fluctuations in annual catches of this stock. For example, the Chinese light-purse seine fishery recorded 84000 tons in 1999 compared to 17000 tons in 2006. The fluctuations have been attributed to variability in habitat quality. The habitat suitability Index (HSI) has been widely used to describe fish habitat quality and in fishing ground forecasting. In this paper we use catch data and satellite derived environmental variables to determine habitat suitability indices for Chub mackerel during July to September in the East China Sea. More than 90% of the total catch was found to come from the areas with sea surface temperature of 28.0A degrees-29.4A degrees C, sea surface salinity of 33.6-34.2 psu, chlorophyll-a concentration of 0.15-0.50 mg/m(3) and sea surface height anomaly of -0.1-1.1 m. Of the four conventional models of HSI, the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) was found to be most suitable according to Akaike Information Criterion analysis. Based on the estimation of AMM in 2004, the monthly HSIs in the waters of 123A degrees-125A degrees E and 27A degrees 30'aEuro28A degrees 00' N were more than 0.6 during July to September, which coincides with the catch distribution in the same time period. This implies that AMM can yield a reliable prediction of the Chub mackerel's habitat in the East China Sea.