Journal
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
Volume 373, Issue 2054, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0429
Keywords
climate change; integrated assessment modelling; value of information
Categories
Funding
- Met Office
- DECC
- EU ClimateCost Programme
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How much is better information about climate change worth? Here, I use PAGE09, a probabilistic integrated assessment model, to find the optimal paths of CO2 emissions over time and to calculate the value of better information about one aspect of climate change, the transient climate response (TCR). Approximately halving the uncertainty range for TCR has a net present value of about $10.3 trillion (year 2005 US$) if accomplished in time for emissions to be adjusted in 2020, falling to $9.7 trillion if accomplished by 2030. Probabilistic integrated assessment modelling is the only method we have for making estimates like these for the value of better information about the science and impacts of climate change.
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