Journal
JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN
Volume 130, Issue 3, Pages -Publisher
ASME
DOI: 10.1115/1.2829873
Keywords
computer experiments; design optimization; cross validation; finite element models; kriging; metamodels; variable selection
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Kriging is a useful method for developing metamodels for product design optimization. The most popular kriging method, known as ordinary kriging, uses a constant mean in, the model. In this article, a modified kriging method is proposed, which has an unknown mean model. Therefore, it is called blind kriging. The unknown mean model is identified from experimental data using a Bayesian variable selection technique. Many examples are presented, which show remarkable improvement in prediction using blind kriging over ordinary kriging. Moreover, a blind kriging predictor is easier to interpret and seems to be more robust against mis-specification in the correlation parameters.
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