Better up, worse down: bidirectional consequences of three decades of climate change on a relict population of Erebia cassioides

Orophilous species are often unable to escape the consequences of climate change because mountains are surrounded by unsuitable habitats. Among them, several endemic species belonging to the genus Erebia Dalman (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Satyrinae) can be considered as key species to assess the risk of biodiversity loss of mountain habitats. The aim of this paper is to measure changes that have occurred in the altitudinal distribution of Erebia cassioides on the Pollino Massif (Southern Italy) during the last 37 years. Sixteen sites sampled in 1975 have been resampled after about three decades (2004, 2012). In 1975 56 % of the sampled population inhabited sites above and 44 % sites below the treeline, while in 2004 and 2012 99 % of the population were observed above the treeline. Furthermore, we observed an uphill shift of 180 m in the barycentre altitude of the species distribution and an unexpected increased density of the population above the treeline which led to a range reduction coupled to population increase of E. cassioides. This pattern contrasts with the usually observed one that couples habitat reduction to population decreasing. The reason for the observed pattern is unclear, but the implication for conservation strategies could be important if confirmed for other species. In fact, during coming decades local extinctions as a consequence of climate change might be fewer and more delayed than expected, and relict populations of cold adapted species could be preserved for a longer time span within optimal habitat refugia.