Efficacy of Whole-Cell Killed Bacterial Vaccines in Preventing Pneumonia and Death during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Background. Most deaths in the 1918 influenza pandemic were caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia. Methods. We performed a systematic review and reanalysis of studies of bacterial vaccine efficacy (VE) in preventing pneumonia and mortality among patients with influenza during the 1918 pandemic. Results. A meta-analysis of 6 civilian studies of mixed killed bacterial vaccines containing pneumococci identified significant heterogeneity among studies and estimated VE at 34% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19%-47%) in preventing pneumonia and 42% (95% CI, 18%-59%) in reducing case fatality rates among patients with influenza, using random-effects models. Using fixed-effect models, the pooled VE from 3 military studies was 59% (95% CI, 43%-70%) for pneumonia and 70% (95% CI, 50%-82%) for case fatality. Military studies showed less heterogeneity and may provide more accurate results than civilian studies, given the potential biases in the included studies. Findings of 1 military study using hemolytic streptococci also suggested that there was significant protection. Conclusions. Despite significant methodological problems, the systematic biases in these studies do not exclude the possibilities that whole-cell inactivated pneumococcal vaccines may confer cross-protection to multiple pneumococcal serotypes and that bacterial vaccines may play a role in preventing influenza-associated pneumonia.