Change in left ventricular geometry over 10 years in the elderly and risk of incident cardiovascular disease

Objective: Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is related to a poor prognosis. We aimed to determine how left ventricular (LV) geometry changes over time, and how this relates to future cardiovascular disease. Methods: In the Prospective Study of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors study, 1016 individuals were investigated with echocardiography at age 70. This was repeated after 5 and 10 years. Incident cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure, n = 163) was recorded over 10 years. Results: LV mass index (LVMI) and LV end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) progressively increased over 10 years, while LV thickness declined (P< 0.0001 for all). Adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, LVMI at baseline, but not LVEDD, was significantly associated with incident cardiovascular disease [hazard ratio (HR) 1.02, 95% confidence interval 1.003-1.03, P = 0.019]. When adding the change in LVMI, or change in LVEDD, between ages 70 and 75 years to the models and using the time between 75 and 80 as follow-up (in total 82 incident cases), neither the change in LVMI nor the change in LVEDD were significant. Using updated information on LV geometric groups, an increased risk was seen for concentric LVH as compared with the normal group following adjustment for traditional risk factors (HR 2.29, P = 0.0014, 95% confidence interval 1.38-3.82). Eccentric LVH and concentric remodeling were not associated with a statistically significant increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: In elderly individuals without myocardial infarction, a progressive dilatation of the LV was seen over 10 years. However, the LV dilation seen over time in this age group was not associated with a major increase in risk of future cardiovascular disease.