Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
Volume 12, Issue 5, Pages 805-822Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/2011JHM1365.1
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- NOAA
- NASA
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [22760364] Funding Source: KAKEN
- ICREA Funding Source: Custom
Ask authors/readers for more resources
The second phase of the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel consensus skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available