Estimation and comparision of curve numbers based on dynamic land use land cover change, observed rainfall-runoff data and land slope

The CN represents runoff potential is estimated using three different methods for three watersheds namely Barureva, Sher and Umar watershed located in Narmada basin. Among three watersheds, Sher watershed has gauging site for the runoff measurements. The CN computed from the observed rainfall-runoff events is termed as CN(PQ), land use and land cover (LULC) is termed as CN(LU) and the CN based on land slope is termed as SACN(2). The estimated annual CN(PQ) varies from 69 to 87 over the 26 years data period with median 74 and average 75. The range of CN(PQ) from 70 to 79 are most significant values and these truly represent the AMC II condition for the Sher watershed. The annual CN(LU) was computed for all three watersheds using GIS and the years are 1973, 1989 and 2000. Satellite imagery of MSS, TM and ETM+ sensors are available for these years and obtained from the Global Land Cover Facility Data Center of Maryland University USA. The computed CN(LU) values show rising trend with the time and this trend is attributed to expansion of agriculture area in all watersheds. The predicted values of CN(LU) with time (year) can be used to predict runoff potential under the effect of change in LULC. Comparison of CN(LU) and CN(PQ) values shows close agreement and it also validates the classification of LULC. The estimation of slope adjusted SA-CN2 shows the significant difference over conventional CN for the hilly forest lands. For the micro watershed planning, SCS-CN method should be modified to incorporate the effect of change in land use and land cover along with effect of land slope. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.