Value of adaptive water resources management in Northern California under climatic variability and change: Reservoir management

This article aims to assess the value of adaptive reservoir management versus traditional operation practices in the context of climatic change for Northern California. The assessment uses adaptive decision model being developed for planning and operational management of the Northern California (central valley) water resources system (HRC-GWRI, 2007), coupled with a dynamic downscaling and hydrologic modeling system described in Georgakakos et al. (this issue). The assessment process compares the water system response in four simulated scenarios, pertaining to two management policies (traditional and adaptive) and two hydrologic data sets (one for the historical and a second for a future scenario). The assessments show that the current policy, which is tuned to the historical hydrologic regime, is unable to cope effectively with the more variable future climate. As a result, the water supply, energy, and environmental water uses cannot be effectively satisfied during future droughts, exposing the system to higher vulnerabilities and risks. By contrast, the adaptive policy maintains similar performance under both hydrologic scenarios, suggesting that adaptive management constitutes an effective mitigation measure to climate change. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.