Topographic controls on overland flow generation in a forest - An ensemble tree approach

Overland flow is an important hydrological pathway in many forests of the humid tropics. Its generation is subject to topographic controls at differing spatial scales. Our objective was to identify such controls on the occurrence of overland flow in a lowland tropical rainforest. To this end, we installed 95 overland flow detectors (OFDs) in four nested subcatchments of the Lutzito catchment on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and monitored the frequency of overland flow occurrence during 18 rainfall events at each OFD location temporal frequency. For each such location, we derived three non-digital terrain attributes and 17 digital ones, of which 15 were based on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of three different resolutions. These attributes then served as input into a Random Forest ensemble tree model to elucidate the importance and partial and joint dependencies of topographic controls for overland flow occurrence. Lutzito features a high median temporal frequency in overland flow occurrence of 0.421 among OFD locations. However, spatial temporal frequencies of overland flow occurrence vary strongly among these locations and the subcatchments of Lutzito catchment. This variability is best explained by (1) microtopography, (2) coarse terrain sloping and (3) various measures of distance-to-channel, with the contribution of all other terrain attributes being small. Microtopographic features such as concentrated flowlines and wash areas produce highest temporal frequencies, whereas the occurrence of overland flow drops sharply for flow distances and terrain sloping beyond certain threshold values. Our study contributes to understanding both the spatial controls on overland flow generation and the limitations of terrain attributes for the spatially explicit prediction of overland flow frequencies. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.