Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume 375, Issue 3-4, Pages 613-626Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005
Keywords
Flood prediction; Uncertainty; Ensemble prediction system; Streamflow; Numerical weather prediction
Funding
- UK's ESRC [ES/F022832/1]
- UK's NERC Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) Programme [NE/E002242/1]
- European PREVIEW
- SAFER [FP6, FP7]
- ESRC [ES/F022832/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- NERC [NE/E002242/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Economic and Social Research Council [ES/F022832/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/E002242/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such 'ensemble flood forecasting' and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the 'added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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