Journal
JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY
Volume 49, Issue 2, Pages 233-242Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2008.04.016
Keywords
incidence; mortality; liver cancer; disease mapping; Bayesian analysis; HBV; HCV; alcohol consumption
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Funding
- Instituto de Salud Carlos III of the Spanish Government [C03/09, C03/10]
- Agencia de Gestio d' Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca of the Catalan Government [2003XT 00023]
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Background/Aims: To assess the variability of liver cancer (LC) risk associated with hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) viruses and alcohol intake in 2002 throughout Europe. Methods: Incidence data were obtained from population-based cancer registries whereas mortality, HBV, HCV and alcohol exposures were obtained from the WHO databases. Relative risk of LC and their posterior probabilities to be >1 were obtained and plotted in maps through a Bayesian random effects model. Results: HBV prevalence >2% increased the risk of developing LC a 15% in men and 21% in women; HCV prevalence >2%, 54% in men and 33% in women and, pure alcohol intake >11 1, 26% and 14%, respectively (all of them statistically significant). These risk factors played a similar role in the risk of dying from LC among men, whereas HBV and alcohol were not statistically significant among women. Significant high LC risk, after HBV/HCV and alcohol adjustment were observed for both sexes in: Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Spain, France and Austria. Conclusions: South-North and East-West decreasing gradients for LC risk were observed in Europe. HBV, alcohol and, mainly, HCV are independent risk factors that could explain this geographical pattern. (C) 2008 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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